Personally, I think it has a great chance. Everything looks good, and the devs have been very involved and competent about everything thus far. Most of the games brought up had problems from the start and in some cases *coughD&Lcough* were outright scams.
Speaking of Shadowbane specifcally, because I actually followed that one for some time, it became apparent it wasn't going to do well for a while before it even released. Getting dropped by GOD Games was bad, but when they got picked up by Ubisoft, the development took a decisive turn toward being more "market friendly" which only made things worse. I believe it went under at least one complete redesign during development at some point as well.
Basically, I think it's safe to hope for the best until Mortal starts swapping developers and blockading communications about the game. By no means are MMOs only for the big guys though.
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