Future of the MO world

[Landor]

Not sure if this is in the right spot or not.

Well it is knowing that the economy will be made by the players (Player ran economy) and that guilds can control the land, the question becomes what type of politics/conomy will we most likely have?

It will most likely be different for each guild controlled area. But in Cities in the game it maybe a different story.

So I'm going to make a prediction about how the economy will be created and develop in the world. (Note: this is just mostly using info of the real world political/economy system, so it may happen, may not happen)


The Beginning

Politics
Because it is the beginning everything is just chaos in this massive world. No political powers/guilds have come to power yet.

Economy
As there is chaos in the world people will just kill to get stuff, so there may not be any economy at this time. But there is a chance that people will want to be the best so items will be costly and it would be a free market system right now.

A few months in

Politics
Well by now guilds have started to learn the controlling land system and will be starting to take land. Which they will be putting laws in place in their land that no killing people that are selling stuff, or something like that.

Also you will get groups of people coming together to put laws in place in non-guild controlled areas.

Economy
By now as there are more people and the higher end items can be crafted, the prices will start to be brought down. But there will still be the price war that will happen. So it will be starting to move from a free market to a more controlled market. But still be free to change.

One scary war torn year later

Politics
By now guilds will have almost all control of the world, with a few cities not controlled by any guilds.

Some guilds will be taxing their people heavily to fuel their clan wars (if there is a tax system in the game). Which you will notice that the more the fight the more they need to tax and most likely people will stay away from that area, or you will get a Elitist political system in this area.

Some guilds will be just fighting wars with their own money and not taxing that much, these places will have a lot of players in it. Which this will be more of a capitalist political system. While some maybe a mix system were people that need help will be given help from the guild.

Economy
With the creation of the mix political system in the MO world those areas may get some price control, so they prices of items will be put at a fixed rate.

Also now because the game is farther along some prices of items will be put at a fixed rate with a illusion of a chance of the price going up or down. So the mix market is starting to come into play here.

A bloody year and beyond

Political
Most likely most guilds will be a mixed political system or a capital political system and stay that way. The heavily taxing guilds would most likely have lost their control over the land they had due to the lack of funds to keep fighting other guilds.

Economy
About 2 years in the game the prices will start to be completely fixed. With some people placing the price of an item a bit higher/lower then the market is at, but it won't really affect the market. Only when a new item is added with the market prices change. which depending on how good that item will decide if the prices go down or up.



Now that is just a prediction of what may happen in the MO world. But this is if no xpacks come out for awhile. If a xpack comes out the economy will change but the political systems will not be effected that much.

I maybe able to make a better prediction if I know the general political/economical preference of the MO forum members. Which to find out what you are you can take the political compass quiz.
http://www.politicalcompass.org/index

So now you guys can talk about my predictions and say your own if you want.

[Lachrymose]

i have to disagree with your views on the economy. in the beginning, i don't see how merchants will be selling their goods at such high prices since nobody will have the money to pay for them. and if no one can afford their goods, they're going to have to lower prices in order to get business.. furthermore, at the beginning, merchants will be leveling their skills and in doing so, they will have an abundance of crafted items on their hands that they probably wouldn't mind selling at a cheap price just to get rid of.

as servers get older and long-term players obtain ridiculous amounts of money, prices inflate since veterans can afford them. typically in MMO's inflation naturally occurs over time since there is an unlimited supply of resources, and thus an unlimited supply of money. the more money that enters the world, the less valuable each coin is worth.. although, i do think MO will do better than most in this regard, as bears and dragons won't be dropping gold, so i think money will be relatively hard to come by (for the non-merchant/non-crafter characters anyways) compared to most MMO's.

so, my theory is that prices will start out very low in the beginning, jump up pretty drastically after 3 months since there will be many established crafters at this point, and prices will slowly but steadily continue to rise as gold becomes inflated, making it more difficult for new players joining years after the server's birth.

[StingFeelsOnlyOnce]

One note, you were taking reference on real world.... I'd just want to note that in real world there are countries like Finland, Sweden and Norway, which have heavy taxes, yet they are among the richest countries in the world. So I wouldn't say that heavily taxing guilds wouldn't work... But that means that if they have heavy taxes, they will need to be able to offer something good in return.

However, it's a gameworld, so it's a bit different than reality.

[Rathius]

It is a bit different than real world... however the major points would lie in the supply vs demand, and inflation.

[Landor]

Yea I forgot about Finland, Sweden and Norway with the taxes. But you got to remember that in MO you can just easily move to another area controlled by a guild. And as people leave the guild would have less money so they would have to tax more hence making more leave, till it is just the guild left.

Rathius at the start it will be supply and demand. Which as time goes on you will start to notice that the prices will start to stay at the same price. Which is my so called fixed prices.

[Rathius]

You aren't really providing any reason that the prices would stay fixed other than an assumption. Which is hard to see with something like inflation. As more money comes into the game, why would a merchant sell for the same price, when they know that people can afford more?

Seriously, you just have to look at a real economy to see this. Ask yourself why fuel prices aren't 10 cents a gallon, or why a gallon of milk is more expensive than it used to be.

You don't have to get down into the micromanagement of economics to see how these kinds of things would apply in a game.

[Landor]

I have seen many, many games that after awhile the prices of the items don't move much at all, but stay in a range. Which one of those games that you can easily look at is RS. And that was before the RWT changes. They had a lot of money in that game.

Also you seem to forget that because this is a ffa Pvp there will be a lot of deaths, which people won't get their items back if they die unless they get back to their bodies quickly before it is looted. So would people want to constantly pay for high priced items?

The answer is no. So the prices won't go up unless there was a huge. And I mean huge flux of money into the players of MO pockets. Which that won't happen as Gold Farmers most likely won't stick with this game due to it being FFA PVP and Full loot. It is as easy as that.

[Rathius]

It depends on the availability of items from an NPC. If you can get most standard things that work just as well as the craft stuff, then yea prices aren't going to move much because people would just revert back to the NPC gear instead.

[Lachrymose]

well, i see what he may be thinking... the conditions in MO will obviously be much different than the real world. everything in the game world is technically fixed.. what i mean is, you probably won't have shortages on resources, since there is an unlimited supply, and unless people just stop harvesting resources for some arbitrary reason, you're not going to see major fluctuation in supply, and i don't see much reason for a spontaneous increase in demand either. as more people join the game, supply will increase, but so will demand, although there will definitely be some fluctuation in the market price, the main thing that will affect it is inflation... however, in MO i don't think the effects will be so great, at least it won't shut newbs out of buying (it will still affect that heap of money some vet has holed up in his bank account though, so it might be best to invest in something).

here's the good thing about MO.. there will be inflation, sure, it'd be very difficult to stop that. but player wealth will probably be determined almost completely off the buying and selling of goods/services. think about it, animal/monster npc's won't be dropping money, they'll be dropping valuable resources, and most likely there won't be a ton of quests that dole out money to newbs, accounting for the vast majority of their income.

here's an example. in WoW, let's say a bear drops 1 gold or some quest gives you 1g as a reward. as prices inflate, the loot that bears drops becomes less and less valuable and the value of quest rewards drops as well.. since that's the primary source of wealth for most newbs, as prices increase, their income remains unchanged and they have to work even harder to afford goods and services. so whereas that 1g you got from killing a bear could have bought you a shiny new sword, now it might take 5x as much to get the same sword.

in MO, if you kill a bear, let's say it drops a bear pelt that sells for 1g. as prices inflate, items become more valueable. as those items become more valuable, so do the ingredients required to make them. so in MO, as prices increase, the newbs' income increases at a relatively even rate so they will still be able to afford those goods and services. now you can sell that bear pelt for 5g due to inflation, so go ahead and buy that shiny sword you had your eye on.

[HSDrac011]

Yea, i think one of the Devs already stated.... i THINK in the interview about MO..... that the prices of items would be as CLOSE to realistic as possible as in u dont pay 1k gold for a sword only like 50-100 ( if gold was the BASE monetary system tht is) possibly even less than that, so the prices at the beginning would not be high at all, also since we already have a few guilds made already for "pre game" im sure the politics are being planned out as we speak within each guild and the guilds will more than likly try to take control at the start to do it FAST to get land for themselves.

P.S. tis is just my opinion on the politics that is but the economy has already been stated like i said by a Dev. Other than that, at least u got a good answer and not a flame from at least one person.... ME

[Lachrymose]

Originally Posted by HSDrac011

Yea, i think one of the Devs already stated.... i THINK in the interview about MO..... that the prices of items would be as CLOSE to realistic as possible as in u dont pay 1k gold for a sword only like 50-100 ( if gold was the BASE monetary system tht is) possibly even less than that, so the prices at the beginning would not be high at all, also since we already have a few guilds made already for "pre game" im sure the politics are being planned out as we speak within each guild and the guilds will more than likly try to take control at the start to do it FAST to get land for themselves.

P.S. tis is just my opinion on the politics that is but the economy has already been stated like i said by a Dev. Other than that, at least u got a good answer and not a flame from at least one person.... ME

i'm not flaming, so don't take this the wrong way.. but that doesn't make any sense. how can the devs set the price of items when most items will be crafted by players? the buyers and sellers are the ones who will determine the price of the goods, based on equilibrium between the two. that's nothing the devs could set even if they wanted to.

as far as politics go, i agree with you there, although there will be a little downtime while clans figure out the ropes and settle down, but politics will probably take off in no time, as they're already in the works.

[Rathius]

The devs can set prices dependant upon what they make available through npcs. It's one way to keep a somewhat stable economy.

[Lachrymose]

Originally Posted by Rathius

The devs can set prices dependant upon what they make available through npcs. It's one way to keep a somewhat stable economy.

npc's will hopefully only be selling the lowbie gear.. in which case, as i mentioned before, newb incomes will probably increase with inflation, so over time it will be relatively cheaper for them to acquire gear.

i would imagine that within the first few weeks of release, there will be merchants that will be selling better items, so the npc's will quickly become useful only to brand new players. at least i certainly hope npc's won't be selling anything other than lowbie gear...

EDIT: however, you're input is greatly appreciated rathius!

[Shinzon]

Money has to enter the system from somewhere... That means that there will be either NPC stores with infinate supply of gold, or mobs drop "Gold", Gold cannot originate from players it can only move through the players, Like a chain on a bike.

[Lachrymose]

Originally Posted by Shinzon

Money has to enter the system from somewhere... That means that there will be either NPC stores with infinate supply of gold, or mobs drop "Gold", Gold cannot originate from players it can only move through the players, Like a chain on a bike.

i figure early on in the game, players will sell the resources they've collected from npc's in the beginning when no one has money, then as people attain more money from selling to vendors, players can then begin selling to other players. after awhile, selling to npc's will probably be done mainly out of convenience as players would pay more than the npc's will.

i don't like the idea of vendor trash, however. it doesn't make sense that an npc would buy something completely worthless... if another player won't buy it, an npc shouldn't buy it imo. so hopefully there won't be some items that you just have to sell to vendors.

anyways, there's always humanoid npc mobs that could realistically be carrying money on them as well. so there will no doubt still be ways for money to come pouring in "out of thin air," but compared to most MMO's this is a huge advancement.

[Traceur]

RL economical shifts is tied directly to population growth patterns, and that's not exactly something that happens very often in MMORPGs:

games that focus on community-oriented gameplay (for example EVE) have a gradual growth curve that actually fits a realistic population growth. they even mimic the jump of mortality rates during wartimes - since small factions are lost in them and often players who lost their faction will leave to come back later on, and the game mimics the rise of population growth relatively to the mortality rate as guilds become under pressure to draft in higher numbers at those times.

however, most MMORPGs focusing on a more indevidualized player expirience have an oposite "growth curve", more akin to the shelftime of a single player game: a huge hyped burst at the start until players move to the next big thing, and then a smaller stable community of fans over the longer period of time.

where does MO stand? i would wish i could say for certain that it is in the first type. but i'm not certain it is. whenever the issues of large scale player warfare, construction & destruction and local economies are opened, there's always a 50% 50% split in the community support and the dev's end up giving some vogue answer suggesting they will try to do the impossible and create a system that makes both sides happy.

[HSDrac011]

ok, Lachrymose, i get what you are saying... but the "Beginning" part of your prediction is what im getting at, i dont think that in the beginning people will be crafting the "high-end" items, maybe in the middle... even then people COULD refuse to buy it at the prices they set for the items, because they can ALWAYS just make a crafter and craft it themselves. Other than that i agree with Trac, as population comes and goes the demand for certain items increases thus increasing the price (at least i THINK thats what Trac was trying to say) and as population dwindles demand decreases thus lowering the prices (simple economics really).

[Lachrymose]

yea, drac, i see what you're saying. npc's will be the main sellers for a while, but i'm guessing that after only a few weeks or so, player crafters will pretty much put them out of business, because not only will they offer higher quality items, they'll also probably be able to undercut the vendors with the low end goods, making npc vendors pretty much obsolete.. at least until inflation kicks in and player merchants have to raise their prices on the low end products.

[Saviour]

I actually don't get the original purpose of this thread :/ I mean can't we just wait and see what happens.

[ViolentWhisper]

Speaking of economy, in mount and blade the shopkeepers have limited ammount of money, so you cannot sell ALL your nice loot to one vendor to get cash.

[Manorothh]

Now the question is, will you introduce that measure into the game? It coul be interesting, because it would make that players must barter each others

[Rathius]

VW, you reminded me of something with the M&B reference...

The NPCs also don't have an infinite supply of goods. Yes they come back after a certain time, but you just can't walk up and by 99999999 swords from them.

[Doomtrain]

Originally Posted by ViolentWhisper

Speaking of economy, in mount and blade the shopkeepers have limited ammount of money, so you cannot sell ALL your nice loot to one vendor to get cash.

Same in "Gothic"1,2,3 a nice game to.

[SkirmCard]

So if shopkeepers did have a limited amount of money (an idea which I love), I wonder how the dev's will add money to the economy? I know that humanoid mobs will probably carry cash, I wonder if there might also be large amounts of gold that an epic boss could be hording.

I would say that or maybe NPC merchants just have a certain currency creation over time, so every 2 hours it gets another few gold pieces or something (but I don't like that idea).

[Lachrymose]

UO vendors had a limited supply of money, but after a certain amount of time, they would "restock" their money, the same time they restocked their goods.

i think it'd be cool if there was a fixed amount of money completely (well, relatively, since new players might start out with a little bit of money to get them started, but only the first char for that deva, so people don't create alts just to get cash). so vendors wouldn't "restock" themselves with money. they would get more money when people sold things to them. just like a real vendor, they would buy things, then sell them for a higher price and turn a small profit they can use to buy items in the future (which means no vendor trash since you could only sell them things that would be circulated back into the economy).

so yea, skirm. there should be some npc bosses that have money, or hidden treasures in dungeons, etc. once someone finds these treasures, though, they don't respawn, they simply get put into the economy.

the only problem i see with a fixed economy, is what happens when someone gets a ton of money and then st